Dr. Chris Lennard					Contact Details	email
About Me	Research Interests	Background	Publications
		Research Interests
	I would be classified a regional climate modeller and use WRF in a number of projects I am involved in. However, I also keep my links with the real world through engaging with users of climate information. Below is a list of projects I either lead or am involved in with varying degrees of responsibility. 1. Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) This combined project with SANEDI, the CSIR, SAWS and DTU (see web link below for details) has developed a the first ever verified generalised wind atlas for a large region of South Africa. I am involved in the mesoscale modelling work group whose task is to develop the first ever verified numerical wind atlas. The current atlas is a statistical/dynamical derived atlas which is not able to capture the wind climate in regions that experience strong dynamical forcing. The development of a fully numerical wind atlas is an attempt to address this and will be available in the first half of 2014. (Click here for more information) 2. Investigating potential changes in the synoptic drivers of extreme rainfall in South Africa In previous work we classified the types of synoptic conditions that are associated with extreme rainfall over South Africa and identified some significant trends in these over the past 30 years. We are now developing a similar statistical methodology to identify potential changes/trends in the drivers of extreme rainfall at decadal and climate change time horizons. 3. Seasonal forecasting We currently produce a seasonal forecast using the HadAM3P model and publish these results online every month. We are now in the process of downscaling this forecast using the WRF model to investigate any added value the downscaling might bring to the forecast over South and southern Africa. We will also investigate the utility of a downscaled seasonal forecast for monthly to seasonal wind and solar energy assessment, which is not possible to do at the course GCM scale. Link-up with the WASA project is envisaged here. (Click here for more information) 4. Decadal prediction Through the ClimAfrica project we downscale decadal predictions statistically and dynamically so that higher resolution climate data can be fed into impacts models like crop and economic models. The role of land surface and vegetation feedbacks is of particular interest here from a modelling persective. (Click here for more information) 5. Cordex Africa My responsibilities within Cordex-Africa span core climate modelling and research to climate information communication. The aim of Cordex is to downscale every major land region of the globe to at least 0.44 degrees for an observed/validation period (1979-2010) using ERA-Interim reanalysis data and projection period (1951-2100) using CMIP5 GCM data as forcing data. On the climate science side, I have downscaled the ERA-Interim data using the WRF regional climate model and will use WRF to run a climate projection downscaling. During 2010 and 2011 I was tasked with co-ordinating an analysis campaign for the African domain including climate scientists from West, East and southern Africa, a process which produced four scientific papers that are currently in review. Through this campaign we have also engaged users of climate data and information across disciplines like agriculture, hydrology, health, city planning, disaster risk management and transport co-exploring their vulnerabilities to climate variability and how these vulnerabilities may change over time. In both the climate analyses and stakeholder engagements we have partnered closely with START and WCRP who provided funding and expertise. (Click here for more information)