- Training and guidance for preparing the Eritrean second national communication - UNDP
- Assessing climate change impacts, vulnerability and strategies for the Limpopo basin of Mozambique - INGC/UNEP
- A risk assessment of climate change on the coast of Singapore – Building and construction authority of Singapore
- Climate change scenarios for storm water and storm surge modelling – City of Cape Town
- Changes in the regional climate of São Tomé and Príncipe – World Bank
- Pilot Program for Climate Resilience in Zambia – World Bank
- Climate change modelling for the Pangani Basin to support the IWRM planning process for the basin - IUCN/UNDP
- Mapping climate change and associated impacts on hydrology and agriculture in Swaziland - UNDP
- Assessing climate change impacts on disaster risk management in Mozambique - INGC/UNDP
- Managing risk, reducing vulnerability and enhancing agricultural productivity under a changing climate - CCAA
- Agricultural weather risk management in Mozambique - World Bank
- Climate Analysis and Technical Assistance for mainstreaming climate risk management in the agriculture sector of the Philippines - World Bank
- Changes in daily rainfall characteristics affecting agriculture: Observations and projections for Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia - World Bank
- Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in preparation of the 2nd national communication of Namibia - provide climate change projections for modelling impacts on water and agriculture (DRFN/UNDP)
- Assessing changes in cyclone and agricultural risk in Madagascar: further developing regional scenarios of vulnerability to climate change - World Bank
- Projected changes in summer climate and the implications for growing maize in southern Africa - NSF funding through START/PACOM
- Assessing RCM parameterisation uncertainties for modelling African climate - project in collaboration with IBM, USA
- The role of antecedent conditions in determining rainfall characteristics during the early part of the rainfall season - Water Research Commission of South Africa (Details here)
- Assesment of potential climate change impacts and adaptations to the long-term sustainability of the water supply to Polokwane municipality - provide climate change projections to USAID project
- Climate change implications for the sandveld - work with Potato and Rooibos tea farmers, funded by Greater Cederberg Biodiversity Corridor
- Climate change scenarios to 2050: Assessing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in key South African sectors - provide climate advice as part of the South African Long-Term Mitigation Study.
Countries with work experience:
Namibia, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, Comores, Lesotho, Zambia, Malawi, Kenya, Senegal, Sudan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Singapore, Philippines, Switzerland, Germany, Chile, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Uganda, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea, Benin, Burkina Faso, Liberia, Sierra Leone.
2011- : United Nations Development Programme (based in Cape Town at UCT, South Africa) Climate strategies
Technical advisor for climate information and modelling
Providing technical advice on climate information and modelling to projects supported by the UNDP-GEF unit as part of the Green-LECRDS (Low Emission Climate Resilient Development Strategies) team. This role involves providing advice and analyses of historical climate variability, trends, near term forecasting and early warning systems, as well as the development of longer term scenarios of regional climate change. One key objective is to build a global network of expert institutions (e.g. University of Cape Town and Columbia University) to provide advice and services to projects when needed. Other objectives include providing direct support to UNDP Regional Technical Advisors when helping governments formulate proposals for accessing GEF administered (e.g. LDCF, SCCF), AF and other funds, as well as support when implementing these projects.
2000-2011: Climate Systems Analysis Group (Cape Town, South Africa) http://www.csag.uct.ac.za
Senior Research Fellow investigating African climate variability, seasonal forecasting, climate change and risks associated with forecast changes and impacts
Research interests include intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics important for agriculture (e.g. rainfall onset/cessation and frequency/intensity of dry/wet spells), their physical causes and potential predictability. Presented at regional climate forums (SARCOF), farmers associations, local and international conferences.
International Union for Conservation of Nature/UNDP: Derive downscaled climate change projections for the Pangani catchment and interface with hydrological modelling of the catchment response.
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA): Support use of downscaled climate scenarios for assessing the impacts on agriculture in Kenya, Tanzania, Sudan and Ethiopia.
Support World Bank projects in Madagascar and Philippines:
i) Comparison of historical climate trends with those expected from climate change;
ii) scope vulnerability and climate hazard data for risk assessments;
iii) support Malagasy government's 2nd communication to UNFCCC through delivery of downscaled climate change data;
iv) assess implications of climate change on cyclones and agricultural risk.
World Bank: Assessing changes in station rainfall data over southern Africa and the implications of climate change for risk reduction (through agricultural micro-insurance schemes) in Malawi;
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA): providing seasonal forecasts and climate change projections for project "Managing climate risk for agriculture and water resources development in south-western South Africa: Quantifying the costs, benefits and risks associated with planning and management alternatives";
CCAA: providing climate analysis support to project "Managing risk, reducing vulnerability and enhancing agricultural productivity under a changing climate" for countries in East Africa.;
PI and senior researcher in 3 Water Research Commission (WRC) projects to: a) assess the effect of land surface - climate interactions on Southern African climate using RCMs; b) assess the potential of daily to seasonal climate forecasts for agricultural management; c) provide climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in secondary impacts e.g. water quality;
South African Earth Observation Network: convert climate change scenarios to GIS formats to aid uptake and analysis by the wider research community;
Conservation International: provide perturbed climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling of species distribution in Madagascar;
WWF: assist interpretation of climate forecasts for Rooibos tea farmers in the Suidebokkeveld;
Reviewer IPCC WGII AR4; Contributing author chapter 11 WGI AR4;
Project manager on Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) funded project AF07 (http://www.aiaccproject.org). Project attained the following:
i) developed downscaled climate change scenarios for Africa using Regional Climate Models (RCMs);
ii) built modelling capacity (Linux based PCs) at University of Zambia, University Cheik Anta-Diop (Senegal) and Zimbabwe Meteorological Service;
iii) assessed the ability of GCMs and RCMs (MM5, PRECIS) to simulate southern African climate, choice of appropriate RCM physics and implications for the modelled hydrological cycle;
iv) modelled vegetation- and soil moisture- climate feedbacks;
- Developed CSAG seasonal forecasting system (http://www.gfcsa.net/csag) using UKMO GCM (UM). Tested physics options to reduce simulation biases in the southern African region;
1999: Alcatel Schweiz AG (Zürich, Switzerland); http://www.alcatel.ch
Unix consultant, setting up Solaris test systems on a private network to replicate external services: Veritas volume manager, Netscape suitespot, DNS, mailing lists, web servers etc. Year 2000 testing. Debugging shell and Perl scripts. Documenting procedures.
1998-1999: European Southern Observatory (European Space Agency); http://www.eso.org
Garching bei München, Germany
Computer support for 250+ astronomers; working with multiple Sun Ultra Enterprise 450/3000/4000 servers. Installing new Ultra Sparcs, printing, email, installing software etc.
Paranal Observatory, Atacama desert, Chile
As one of two Unix administrators provided support for 28 HP-UX systems used to control some of the world's largest astronomical telescopes (VLT), its instruments and archive astronomical, geological and local meteorological data. The VLT project is situated in the desert 120 km from Antofagasta.
1993-1997: Scott Polar Research Institute (Cambridge, U.K.); http://www.spri.cam.ac.uk
Post-doctoral research assistant (Sea Ice Group)
Completed project to investigate how SAR system noise affects an algorithm for classifying sea ice.
Research Student (Sea Ice Group)
Specialised in satellite microwave remote sensing. Developed new methods for detecting newly forming sea ice using satellite microwave (SSM/I) data and investigated waves within sea ice using synthetic aperture radar (SAR).
- Collection and interpretation of oceanographic data in the central Greenland Sea (Jan 1993);
- Sea-ice scientist with the Ocean Drilling Program, drilling ocean sediments in the Arctic. Tasks included briefing scientists and drilling personnel on likely ice conditions, running an ice-physics program and investigating the use of satellite data for ice navigation (Jul-Sep 1993);
- Collection, cataloguing and later interpretation of sea-ice and oceanographic data using GPS, ARGOS drifters, wavebuoys and CTDs deployed from an icebreaker and zodiac dingy (Mar 1997).
1991-1992: Geco-Prakla geophysical company (Woking, U.K.); http://www.westerngeco.com
Geco-Prakla is a subsidiary company of Schlumberger, involved in the acquisition and processing of seismic data both on land and at sea. Employed as a geophysicist in the seismic data processing section.
Publications and reports
Wolski P., Stone D., Tadross M., Wehner M., Hewitson B. (2014 in press) Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa. Journal of Hydrology.
Estes, L. D., Beukes, H., Bradley, B. A., Debats, S. R., Oppenheimer, M. G., Ruane, A. C., Schulze, R., Tadross, M. A. (2013), Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: A comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12325
Fasona M., Tadross M., Abiodun B., Omojola A. (2013) Some implications of terrestrial ecosystems response to climate change for adaptation in Nigerias wooded savannah. Environmental Development 5 73-95. doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2012.11.003
Estes, L. D., Bradley, B. A., Beukes, H., Hole, D. G., Lau, M., Oppenheimer, M. G., Schulze, R., Tadross, M. A., Turner, W. R. (2013), Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: implications for ecological forecasting. Global Ecology and Biogeography. doi: 10.1111/geb.12034
Wolski P.,Todd M.C., Murray-Hudson M.A., Tadross M. (2012), Multi-decadal oscillations in the hydro-climate of the Okavango River system during the past and under a changing climate. Journal of Hydrology. 475. 294-305
Favre A., Hewitson B., Lennard C., Cerezo-Mota R., Tadross M. (2012), Cut-off Lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to precipitation. Climate Dynamics. DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1579-6
Bradley B.A., Estes L.D., Hole D.G., Holness S., Oppenheimer M., Turner W.R., Beukes H., Schulze R.E., Tadross M.A. Wilcove D.S. (2012) Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability. Diversity Distrib. 1-13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00875.x
Gbobaniyi E.O., Abiodun B.J., Tadross M.A., Hewitson B.C., Gutowski W.J. (2011) The coupling of cloud base height and surface fluxes: a transferability intercomparison. Theor Appl Climatol 106:189-210 DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0421-0
Fasona M., Tadross M., Abiodun B., Omojola A. (2011) Local Climate Forcing and Eco-Climatic Complexes in the Wooded Savannah of Western Nigeria. Natural Resources, 2, 155-166 doi:10.4236/nr.2011.23021
Cullis J., Strzepek K., Tadross M., Sami K., Havenga B., Gildenhuys B., Smith J. (2011) Incorporating climate change into water resources planning for the town of Polokwane, South Africa, 108:437-456 DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9891-9
Tadross M. (2011) Sao Tome & Principe: Adaptation to Climate Change Program Technical support for climate modelling: Projected and observed changes in climate from historical data and General Circulation Models. Technical note. World Bank. Washington DC. pp 22. Download
Crespo O., Hachigonta S., Tadross M. (2011) Sensitivity of southern African maize yields to the definition of sowing dekad in a changing climate. Climatic Change, 106:267-283. DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9924-4
Favre A., Hewitson B., Tadross M., Lennard C., Cerezo-Mota R. (2011) Relationships between cut-off lows and the semiannual and southern oscillations. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1030-4
Tummon, F., F. Solmon, C. Liousse, and M. Tadross (2010), Simulation of the direct and semidirect aerosol effects on the southern Africa regional climate during the biomass burning season, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D19206, doi:10.1029/2009JD013738
Patt A.G., Tadross M., Nussbaumer P., Asante K., Metzger M., Rafael J., Goujon A., Brundrit G. (2010) Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years. Proceedings National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0910253107. Access here
Tumbo, S.D., Mpeta E., Tadross M., Kahimba F.C., Mbillinyi B.C., Mahoo H.F. (in press) Application of self-organizing maps technique in downscaling GCMs climate change projections for Same, Tanzania. J. Phys. Chem. Earth (2010), doi:10.1016/j.pce.2010.07.023
Tadross M., Suarez P., Lotsch A., Hachigonta S., Mdoka M., Unganai L., Lucio F., Kamdonyo D., Muchinda M. (2009) Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize. Climate Research. Vol. 40. 147-161. DOI: 10.3354/cr00821.
Tadross M. (2009) Climate change modelling and analyses for Mozambique Final report detailing the support provided to the Instituto Nacional de Gestãde Calamidades (INGC) adaptation to climate change project . INGC, Mozambique. pp 27. Download: INGC Synthesis report and Climate modelling report
Tadross M., Tummon F. (2009) Sao Tome & Principe: Adaptation to Climate Change Program Technical support for climate modelling Historical decadal changes in regional climate and aerosols. Technical note. World Bank. Washington DC. pp 12. Download
Mackellar, NC, Tadross MA, Hewitson BC (2009). Effects of vegetation map change in MM5 simulations of southern Africa's summer climate. International journal of climatology. 29. 885-898. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1754
Mackellar, NC, Tadross MA, Hewitson BC (2009). Synoptic-based evaluation of climatic response to vegetation change over southern Africa. International journal of climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1925
Archer, E.R.M.; OettléN.M.; Louw, R. and Tadross, M.A. (2009). Farming on the Edge in arid western South Africa: adapting to climate change in marginal environments. Geography. 93(2). 98-107
Archer, E.R.M. and Tadross, M.A. (2009). Climate change and desertification in South Africa - science and response. African journal of range and forage science. 26(3). 127-131
Tadross M.A. (2008). How best to model local cyclone risk. SciDev network. View here
Tadross M., Lotsch A. (2008) Weather risk management in Mozambique: Technical note on current and planned weather stations and their potential viability for designing and monitoring agricultural weather risk insurance. report to the World Bank, Washington DC. pp 12. Download
Tadross M. (2008) Climate Analysis and Technical Assistance for Climate Modelling. Final report on providing technical assistance for mainstreaming climate risk management in the agriculture sector of the Philippines. report to the World Bank, Washington DC. pp 36. Download
Hannah et al. (2008) Climate change adaptation for conservation in Madagascar. Biology letters. DOI 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0270. Download
Hachigonta S., Reason C.J.C., Tadross M. (2008) An analysis of onset date and rainy season duration over Zambia. Theoretical & Applied Climatology. 91. p 229-243. doi: 10.1007/s00704-007-0306-4.
J. Cullis, K. Strzepek, M. Tadross, K. Sami, B. Gildenhuys, J. Smith. (2007) Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning for the town of Polokwane, South Africa. in preparation.
Tadross M., Dirkx E., Hager C., Mwangala S. (2007) Changes in historical climate and the projected future climate of Namibia. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment undertaken in support of Namibia's 2nd National Communication to the UNFCCC. pp 21.
Jury M., Rautenbach H., Tadross M., Philipp A. (2007) Evaluating spatial scales of climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 88(3):169-177. DOI:10.1007/s00704-006-0251-7
Tadross M., Suarez P., Lotsch A., Hachigonta S., Mdoka M., Unganai L., Lucio F., Kamdonyo D., Muchinda M. (2007) Changes in growing-season rainfall characteristics and downscaled scenarios of change over southern Africa: implications for growing maize. IPCC regional Expert Meeting on Regional Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability, and Mitigation, Nadi, Fiji, June 20-22, 2007. p 193-204.
Midgley GF, Chapman RA, Mukheibir P, Tadross M, Hewitson B, Wand S, Schulze RE, Lumsden T, Horan M, Warburton M, Kgope B, Mantlana B, Knowles A, Abayomi A, Ziervogel G, Cullis R and Theron A. (2007) Assessing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in key South African sectors: A background study for the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios assessment. Energy Research Centre, Cape Town.
Tadross M., Suarez P., Lotsch A., Hachigonta S., Mdoka M., Unganai L., Lucio F., Kamdonyo D., Muchinda M. (2007) Institutions for Climate Change Adaptation Sub-Component: Changes in daily rainfall characteristics affecting agriculture: Observations and projections for Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia. report to the World Bank, Washington DC. pp 32
Tadross, M. (2006) Climate change scenarios for the Olifants catchment area. In "South Africa Pilot Study Report: Climate Change and Water Resource Planning in Polokwane" prepared for the U.S. Agency for International Development by Stratus Consulting Inc. PO Box 4059 Boulder, CO. pp 139
Mackellar, N.C., Hewitson B.C., Tadross M.A., 2007: Namaqualand's climate: recent historical changes and future scenarios. Journal of Arid Environments, 70(4), 604-614. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.03.024.
Tadross, M.A., Gutowski W.J. Jr., Hewitson B.C., Jack C.J., New M., 2006: MM5 simulations of interannual change and the diurnal cycle of southern African regional climate. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 86, 63-80. DOI 10.1007/s00704-005-0208-2.
Tadross, M.A., Jack C., and Hewitson B.C., 2005: On RCM-based projections of change in southern African summer climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(23), L23713, doi 10.1029/2005GL024460.
Midgley, G.F., Chapman, R.A., Hewitson, B., Johnston, P., de Wit, M., Ziervogel, G., Mukheibir, P., van Niekerk, L., Tadross, M., van Wilgen, B.W., Kgope, B., Morant, P.D., Theron, A., Scholes, R.J., Forsyth, G.G. (2005). A status quo, vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the physical and socio-economic effects of climate change in the western Cape. Report to the Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa. CSIR Report No. ENV-S-C 2005-073, Stellenbosch.
Hewitson B.C., Tadross, M.A., Sarr A., Jain S., Mdoka M., Jack C., McKellar N., Walawege R., Intsiful J., Gutowski W.J.Jr., Crane R., Stendel M., 2005: The development of regional climate change scenarios for sub-sahara Africa. Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change project AF07, START secretariat, Washington DC, US, pp 115.
Tadross, M.A., Hewitson B.C. and Usman M.T., 2005: The interannual variability of the onset of the maize growing season over South Africa and Zimbabwe. Journal of Climate., 18(16), 3356-3372.
Hewitson, B.C., Crane R.G., and Tadross M., 2005: Regional climate scenarios for impact assessment. Chapter in 'Africa Global Change Synthesis'
Karanja, F.K., Hewitson B.C., and Tadross M., 2004: Contribution to UNEP commissioned paper 'Climate change scenarios and vulnerability assessments for selected countries in Eastern and Southern Africa'
Usman, M.T., Archer E., Johnston P., and Tadross M., 2005: A conceptual framework for enhancing the utility of rainfall hazard forecasts for agriculture in marginal environments, Natural Hazards, 34, 111-129.
Hewitson B., Reason C., Tennant W., Tadross M., Jack C., Mackellar N., Lennard C., Walawege R., Mdoka M., 2004: Dynamical modelling of present and future climate, Water Research Commission of South Africa.
Reason C.J.C., Landman W., Tadross M., Tennant W., Bopape M-J., 2004: Seasonal to decadal predictability and prediction of southern African climate, white paper presented to the CLIVAR workshop on Atlantic predictability, 17-21 April, University of Reading, UK.
Tadross, M., B.C. Hewitson, and M. Usman, 2003: Calculating the onset of the maize growing season over southern Africa using GTS and CMAP data, CLIVAR-exchanges, 27, 48-50.
Reason C.J.C., Jagadheesha J., and Tadross M., 2003: A model investigation of inter-annual winter rainfall variability over southwestern South Africa and associated ocean-atmosphere interaction. South African Journal of Science. 99. p 75-80.
Tadross, M.A. . The effect of speckle on a nearest-neighbour statistical approach to sea ice classification. In Local ice cover deformation and mesoscale ice dynamics, mid-term review for European Community MAST III project MAS3-CT95-0006. 9-10 October, Cambridge, U.K.
Tadross, M.A. . Microwave remote sensing of young sea ice in the Greenland Sea. Ph.D. thesis, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K., pp 241
Wadhams, P., De Carolis, G., Parmiggiani, F.F. and Tadross, M. . Wave dispersion by Frazil-Pancake ice from SAR imagery. In Proc. International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. Singapore, 3-8 August 1997.
Wadhams, P., Parmiggiani, F.F., De Carolis, G. and Tadross, M.A. . The use of SAR to map ice thickness in the Odden ice tongue and determine its role in deep convection. Final report for the European Community, Environment and climate program. Contract EV5V-CT94-0440, pp 157.
Wadhams, P., Parmiggiani, F.F. and Tadross, M.A. . Wave spectra of SAR imagery in the Odden ice tongue. In Proc. International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. Florence, Italy, 10-14 July 1995.
Wells, S., Tadross, M.A. and Garbett, D., Sea ice observations log, p 423-452.
Wells, S., Tadross, M.A., Sea Ice physics, p 49-53.
In Myhre, A.M., Thiede, J., Firth, J.V., et al., . Proc. ODP, Init. Repts., 151: College Station, TX (Ocean Drilling Program).
Tadross, M.A. and Brandon, M.A. . Sea ice observations from the R.V. Northern Horizon, 20/1/93 - 17/2/93. Scott Polar Research Institute, Sea Ice Group technical report, pp 30.