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The idea
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Imagine you could make a seasonal forecast for the next month for a world that might have been if human activities had not emitted greenhouse gases. How would that forecast compare to the actual seasonal forecast for our real world? This is what we do here, compare actual seasonal forecasts against seasonal forecasts that might have been in that non-greenhouse gas world. Specifically, we compare the chances of pre-defined unusual monthly weather events in the two worlds, estimating how much more or less likely they are in our warming world than they might otherwise have been.
Further details are available here.
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Issued attribution forecasts
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Recent news
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| 2013-05-17: |
The preliminary June 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The March 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only). |
| 2013-04-11: |
The preliminary May 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The February 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only). |
| 2013-03-22: |
The generation of simulations at LBNL and UCT supporting the C20C Detection and Attribution Project and underlying the WRAF were presented at Climate 2013, a workshop on the contribution of high performance computing to climate change research (Berkeley, California, USA). |
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Last update:
17 May 2013
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Contact: Dáithí Stone (dstone@lbl.gov)
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© Copyright 2009-2013 Contributors to the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast
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